Posted: November 26, 2024, 03:46.
Last updated: November 27, 2024, 10:32am.
Thanksgiving and soccer are an ideal pairing because they are both distinctly American. Sports betting isn't just a US phenomenon, but many domestic bettors will enjoy soccer betting with their turkey this week.
Patrick Mahomes (No. 15), Travis Kelce (No. 87) and the Kansas City Chiefs are scheduled to play the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday, which could trigger more sports betting deals during Thanksgiving week. (Image: USA Today Sports)
In a new report for clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon expects US bettors to place $4.5 billion worth of bets on regulated markets this week. Beynon defines Thanksgiving week as the period from November 25th to December 1st.
This forecast implies an 11% year-over-year growth, and while that $4.5 billion will likely include other sports such as basketball, football, led by the NFL, will likely carry the lion's share of the burden.
Football is the most bet-on sport in the United States, and a record 38 states and Washington, D.C., will allow some form of sports betting this Thanksgiving. Beynon expects betting volume to jump 15% this week compared to last year, and the NFL is imposing obligations on bettors. There will be three games on Thanksgiving, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. After that, it's the usual Sunday schedule.
College football is also contributing. Games will be played throughout the week, with at least one game on Thanksgiving and more than a dozen the next day.
Thanksgiving football could benefit these operators
The increased stake levels over Thanksgiving week should benefit the gaming industry in a broader sense, but the benefits at operator level are uneven.
FanDuel (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), both owned by Flutter Entertainment, are the largest sportsbook companies by market share, and while that is unlikely to change anytime soon, Beynon said this week We see our competitors gaining momentum. He said Bally's (NYSE:BALY), Caesars Sportsbook and Rush Street Interactive (NYSE:RSI) should see their biggest year-over-year expansion during Thanksgiving week.
“BetMGM is coming off an above-average two-week hold of over 11%, and if this trend continues, it could be a big rally,” Beynon wrote.
He added that DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook appear to be gaining market share, based on New York's November data through Nov. 18. Thanksgiving also contributes to the rise of soccer betting in other ways.
Each of the day's three games is considered by bettors to be a prime-time affair comparable to “Monday Night Football,” and bettors tend to invest in such games. In Week 12 of the NFL season, prime-time games accounted for 37% of bets and 10% of handles, McCauley said.
Bullish about stock investment
Beynon is positive on stocks related to sports betting, calling Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), DraftKings, ESPN Bet parent company Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN), and Rush Street Interactive “outperform.” I am evaluating it.
He favors operators involved in online gaming, including sports betting, due to their high gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth profile.
“We support online for two reasons: 1) It is the only major gaming sector that is not dependent on the economy for double-digit growth. 2) It is the only one that has consistently exceeded market expectations over the past two years. GGR in Q4 was +23% (online sports betting +23%, iGaming +25%), and GGR in 2025E was +18% YoY. “I expect it to be,” he concluded.
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